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"I will be sitting in this seat by 2027," the Prime Minister declared, joking that if our conversation was successful, he might welcome us into his official residence for another talk next year.

There is rarely ever time off for prime ministers. Shortly before we sat down, Starmer had been in calls with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to understand precisely had occurred in Venezuela, where his big friend, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once the discussion, which was much longer than typical, had finished, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

As the new year begins, Sir Keir appears to have had a degree of a reboot. Maybe even just a little a rest with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

That certainly seemed to have left him in better spirits than at the saggy end of 2025, a dreadful annus horribilis for him.

Yet, are he and his allies deluding themselves if they reckon his political fate are about to improve?

Leadership Questions

The grisly reality for the prime minister is that many of his party members believe he's underperforming at his job. Some of them would rather gamble and remove him this year.

But Sir Keir was having none of it during our conversation on Saturday morning.

Repeatedly he told me he'd be "evaluated at the poll", maintaining nobody would take his five-year mandate from him – even if the best chance of stopping Nigel Farage and Reform UK entering No 10 may be for Labour to switch its leader.

"This is the battle of our times and I aim to be at the forefront," he affirmed.

Upcoming Local Votes

The issue for the PM is that he will be judged long before then – in a huge set of elections in May throughout the UK. He tried to contend, perhaps excessively, that they are about who runs local authorities, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.

Accurate – to some extent. But although he may not want to acknowledge it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir stating that there were no circumstances under which he would walk away, should a his MPs ran against him for the job, if those elections prove very poor for Labour.

Promises of Improvement

He sought to explain his low poll ratings by saying the public was reasonably anxious for things to get better. He tried to persuade me, and the public, that the coming months would be a change.

The economic situation would improve notwithstanding rising unemployment, he argued, when policies the government put in place during their initial choppy year began to bear fruit.

• He committed to empty asylum hotels ahead of the current deadline of 2029, but he did not set a specific date on that.
• He said too, with the qualification that it was not a done deal, that a peace deal in Ukraine felt closer now than at any time since Russia's full-scale invasion.
• He stated for the first time that Western allies were now discussing how to combine US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to safeguard a potential peace.

His central message is that soon the country will "turn the corner".

A Consistent Script

The prime minister may have spoken with greater vigour than I've seen from him for a while – calmer, perhaps, with more time to talk.

However, in spite of encountering pressure from many directions for a bolder strategy, with increased political clarity, more vigour, more speed and more urgency, his arguments were familiar ones.

When he finds himself in this much political trouble, should he consider a new narrative?

No administration, and especially not one that has been unpopular for an extended period, gets everything its as planned.

Sir Keir's challenges are not just because government is difficult, but because he and his team have faltered, including in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister expressed regret that he was sorry for saying he was "delighted" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an outcry when comments he'd previously made – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Sir Keir blamed "the process" for not realising what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.

And he is inviting clear political perils as the year gets going. His close relationship with the US president takes on a new risk after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over many years, the idea he would be comfortable with this kind of intervention seems far-fetched.

International Law and Brexit

He stated he was a "lifelong proponent of international law" but the public "just lack the complete details at the moment".

Opponents demanded condemn it before the interview. And the government is expected to face further scrutiny to give an definitive view in Parliament in the near future.

And there has consistently been growing desire in the Labour ranks to reverse or renegotiate some of the results of Brexit.

The PM rejects he's heading in that direction, but his new more concrete pledge to move closer with the European trading bloc – the vast economic European trading zone – will likely provoke protests that he is reneging on his pledge never to try to reverse the choices that flowed from Brexit.

A move to integrate into more of the single market will please many on his own side, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to